tag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:/trending?page=14Journal of Brief Ideas: Ideas from the last week2015-03-08T23:59:55Ztag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/1162015-03-08T23:59:55Z2017-05-13T04:36:32ZFutures: between prediction and planninghttp://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16019Futurists often appear to be divided into two camps: one group put their efforts into forecasting, while the other group insist that the future is ours to plan—decide on a desirable future and then devise policies to get there. But my thesis is that the dichotomy is false, because unless much of the future can be predicted with reasonable confidence, planning the future would be impossible.
Partial predictability is possible for three reasons. First, we have discovered biophysical laws which help us accurately predict future states of the world. Second, there is the permanence of physical land forms, and to a lesser extent, built infrastructure. Urban infrastructure is expensive to build, and can (and does) last for a century or more [[Moriarty and Honnery 2012]] (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328712001802). Third, much human behavior is predictable, because it is codified into laws, or social customs. Motorists nearly always stop at red traffic lights. Without this partial predictability we would live in a nightmare world.
The real future prediction problem arises because along with our improved understanding of the biophysical world comes the power to modify it. For example, future climate now depends increasingly on human actions, because of our massive intervention in natural processes.
Moriarty, Patricktag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/1102015-03-04T19:24:00Z2015-03-12T11:06:36ZThe relationship between healthcare administrative costs and physician-reported efficiency measures: an international comparison.http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15842Comparative analysis of international health systems has increased in recent years, serving to inform systemic transformations undertaken (Singapore) or explored (Vermont). Much of this analysis has focused on comparisons of various healthcare financing schemes.
This analysis explores the relationship between healthcare administrative costs and physician-reported efficiency measures across ten industrialized countries, using OECD data to determine the percentage of national health expenditures spent on health administration and insurance (PHEHA) – a measure that allows a par comparison of administrative efficiency across countries with various health financing arrangements – and Commonwealth Fund surveys of physicians in the same countries.
PHEHA was compared to two physician-reported measures of administrative inefficiency: (1) “Doctors report time spent on administrative issues related to insurance or claims is a major problem” and (2) “Doctors report time spent getting patients needed medications or treatment because of coverage restrictions is a major problem”. The correlation (Pearson’s r) between PHEHA and (1) was 0.67, and between PHEHA and (2) was 0.73.
The relationship between PHEA and indicators of administrative inefficiency provides context for a number of additional subjects of investigation, including the relationship between health system administrative structure and physician workforce planning, job satisfaction, and opportunities for labor savings associated with administrative simplification.Gamlin, Ryantag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/902015-02-23T08:39:47Z2015-02-27T08:47:42ZThe Austrian Science Fund (FWF): Analyzing Decision Making and Peer Reviewhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15602The legitimacy of a funding agency in basic research depends at least on the following factors:
* organization’s ability to minimize distortions in approval probability by its decision procedure
* the scientific quality of results produced by funded research proposals
* the acceptance of the procedures by the scientific community.
To ensure these requirements, the [FWF] (http://www.fwf.ac.at/en/) started a sequence of empirical studies which contain analyses of the decision making procedure (peer review) as well as statistical and bibliometric analyses of FWF funded proposals. A survey among the Austrian scientific community followed. Some of the analyses are conducted by the FWF itself, others by independent experts, eg. from the [MPG Munich] (http://www.lutz-bornmann.de/) or [CWTS Leiden.] (http://www.socialsciences.leiden.edu/) All results are [openly accessible.] (http://www.fwf.ac.at/en/about-the-fwf/publications/)
Our endeavor will round off all these studies to summarize the results. Addressees of this (policy) paper are the scientific community, policy makers and the public. FWF’s goal is to address urban legends about its work, compare results and link them to get the big picture of FWF’s efforts during the last years. Among others we will address potential biases in our decision mechanisms, discuss outcomes and impacts and compare the results with the opinions of the scientific community.
*[Falk Reckling](/users/df7f367ccf932e5acf3d918adda77a79), Ralph Reimann, [Klaus Zinöcker](/users/4a556c9956cef302c8f19c97a2adcc00), FWF*
Zinöcker, Klaustag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/762015-02-20T10:17:37Z2015-03-02T20:23:21ZTime dependent and location dependent electric pricing using smart metershttp://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15559Smart meters are increasingly deployed to electric endusers, with the prime goal of decreasing metering costs for the power companies.They can be set in a way that the momentary power usage is transmitted close to realtime.
The trading price of electric energy fluctuates with time, e.g. due to the volatile production of renewables, and demand curves of the net. For sunny and windy days, the price can even become negative http://www.epexspot.com/en/company-info/basics_of_the_power_market/negative_prices . From a holistic economic point of view, it makes sense for customers to adopt their energy usage to the current price on the market. However, this is hindered as endusers pay proportionally to their total consumption.
Using smartmeters, the volatile energy prices could be transparently used to bill the customers. They then can have web-enabled devices that based on the current electric price e.g. charge the electric vehicle or cool the fridge further than usually. Thereby, the electric price is stabilized, as demand is coupled to price.
Additionally, the price can depend on if power needs to be transmitted through the grid.
Using this measures, the usage of the transmission grid is minimized, and local production/consumption maximized, leading to cheaper and stable power and higher share of renewables.Kubicek, Bernhardtag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/722015-02-19T21:33:56Z2019-02-04T21:53:37ZComplexity spaces will capture more a more nuanced understanding of technological evolution in the Pleistocenehttp://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15538In Paleolithic archaeology, we are interested in changes in complexity in technology, social networks, and communication over time. However, little research has been done to specify and quantify what is meant by ‘complexity.’ Recently that has begun to change.
All of these contributions seem promising, but they focus on different conceptualizations of complexity. Perault et al. [(2013)](http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/673264) develop the concept of techno-units. Mahaney ([2013](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263465321_Measuring_the_Evolution_of_Toolmaking_Complexity_Indices_of_Operational_Complexity), [2014](http://www.paleoanthro.org/media/journal/content/PA20140586.pdf), In progress) has focused on individual action sequences, using complexity indices from information theory ([Gabadnho et al. 2011](http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gilbert_Ritschard/publication/220786242_Indice_de_complexit_pour_le_tri_et_la_comparaison_de_squences_catgorielles/links/53edabdb0cf26b9b7dc5f259.pdf)) and graph theory. Rugg [(2011)] (http://www.paleoanthro.org/media/journal/content/PA20110154.pdf) focuses on the organization of the foraging economy. Instead of attempting to develop a single complexity metric, perhaps archaeologists should attempt to situate lithic technologies in a complexity space comprise of multiple measures each capturing different aspects complexity. Elaboration may take place at different levels at different times. For instance, it may be the case that the transition from Oldowan to Acheulean technologies after 1.8 ma involved changes at the level of the individual action, techno-units or cultural recipes. However, the emergence of the Levallois and Mousterian technologies after 250 ka may represent increased economic complexity.
[Robert Mahaney Researchgate](https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Robert_Mahaney)
Mahaney, Roberttag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/242015-02-11T18:02:46Z2015-02-20T04:34:56ZRole of perspective in motion sickness induced by navigating a virtual environment http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15028Some individuals report experiencing motion sickness when navigating virtual environments. While field-of-view may mediate this effect ([Bos et al., 2010](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apergo.2009.11.007)), perspective may be another relevant factor. With respect to imagery, first-person perspective has been associated with a greater degree of embodiment than a third-person perspective ([Madan & Singhal, 2012](http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10339-012-0438-z); [Moran et al., 2015](http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2015.00023)). Participants often navigate a virtual environment from a first-person perspective (e.g., building the environment in a first-person shooter, such as Half-Life 2; [Legge et al., 2012](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2012.09.002)). Would these individuals still experience motion sickness if a third-person perspective was used?
Third-person perspective is not without its flaws. By having a visible avatar (e.g., from an over-the-shoulder camera), rather than viewing the environment from the avatar's eyes, there is less immersion-- navigating a virtual environment from this perspective is less similar to how one navigates in the real world. Nonetheless, many games that are presented from the first-person perspective switch to a third-person view during certain activities, e.g., driving. Third-person virtual navigation is also more artificial as it unnaturally allows the player to see around corners and other obstacles, though some games use a third-person perspective precisely for this purpose (e.g., Gears of War). Interestingly, a handful of games allow the player to actively switch perspectives (e.g., Fallout 3, Skyrim, The Talos Principle). Investigating if a third-person perspective can attenuate this induced motion sickness would further our understanding of the role of embodiment in virtual navigation.Madan, Christophertag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/232015-02-11T01:57:22Z2015-05-27T20:43:01ZReanimation of Australian Megafauna, Extinct Species and New Zealand Moashttp://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15013After the arrival of the first humans, Indigenous Australians, to the island continent, the previous megafauna became extinct. As many samples are still extant, deriving DNA samples or fragments and reverse engineering, through multiple generations could allow us to recreate these fauna, or at the very least, increase our understanding of development, evolution and reproductive technology. It will also increase our technical know how for the development of useful synthetic organismsDivisekera, Upulietag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/11782024-01-02T05:07:53Z2024-01-30T22:29:32ZA win-win strategy: wake plantations uphttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10450041Natural forest plays a crucial role in global forest restoration and is even proved to be 40 times better than plantation at carbon storage (see S. L. Lewis et al. Nature 568, 25–28; 2019), but long-term natural regeneration will decrease small farmers’ income. Waking plantations up could be a better alternative to support natural restoration and socioeconomic development.
Boosting plantation biodiversity to underpin global deforestation recovery. For example, building up mixed buffer zones which contain native species at the boundary of plantations may increase forest biodiversity and encourage the incorporation of plantations in the local landscape (P. Pozo et al. Forests. 9 (10). 614; 2018).
Increasing forest production to raise farmers’ income. With the green purchase methods, farmers in semiarid China escape the poverty trap, for example (S. Cao et al. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 37 (7); 2017).
Combining top-down global ambitions and bottom-up local needs, I think waking plantations up could better contribute to SDG1 ‘No poverty’ and SDG13 ‘Climate action’ (see go.nature.com/2kwtxsy).
Guo, xinleitag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/11772023-12-29T11:39:40Z2024-01-30T22:29:33ZBuilding Climate Resilience in Southeast Asia with Digital Technologieshttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10449711Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its extensive coastlines and dense population. Building and strengthening climate resilience is crucial in this region. However, despite the recognition of the need for climate-resilient cities, challenges persist.
Governments and policymakers play a vital role in driving climate-resilient development. Political will is essential in creating an enabling environment, as depoliticized approaches have limited success. We recommend that policymakers focus on leveraging digital technologies to aid in climate-resilient development.
Digital technologies can expedite infrastructure resilience assessments and aid decision-making throughout climate hazards. They generate reliable data that policymakers can use to create policies incentivizing climate-resilient development. Digital methods can quantify resilience benefits, enabling public finance to promote climate-resilient investment.
Despite efforts, capacity for investment and development in digital technologies for climate resilience remains limited in Southeast Asian countries. Collaboration between higher-capacity states and international partners is crucial. Financial assistance and knowledge sharing are needed to support climate-resilient development in the region.
In summary, prioritizing climate resilience, leveraging digital technologies, and fostering collaboration are key for Southeast Asia to tackle the challenges posed by climate change.Guo, xinleitag:beta.briefideas.org,2005:Idea/11742023-12-15T20:42:06Z2024-03-20T16:22:07ZThiel's Traphttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10426529Few economic concepts demonstrate scarcity as clearly as the Malthusian Trap. An economic condition where population growth outpaces food production (Malthus,1798). The fight for subsistence is in the rearview mirror of the developed world, but Malthusian logic is now applied to environmentalism(Hardaway,1997). This concept also applies to business.
In Zero to One (2014), PayPal founder Peter Thiel describes the dangers of intense market competition. Firms vying for razor-thin margins bring us to Thiel’s Trap (Thiel & Masters, 2014). The oversupply of producers greatly diminishes market share and consumer demand, generating a commons (Hardin, 1968). The participating firms do not exercise market dominance, all fighting over a narrowing market share.
The only way to escape the chasm of Thiel’s Trap is innovation. Similar to how agricultural advances helped the world climb out of the Malthusian Trap, the Schumpeterian winds of Creative Destruction (Schumpeter,1943) will lift your company out of Thiel’s Trap. Inventing a new product category is the escape hatch from subsistence in business.Clark, Peter