Bayesian verdicts

Why do juries emit binary verdicts, i.e. guilty or not guilty? Why not allow each juror to emit a "Bayesian vote" reflecting his/her subjective degree of belief in the probability of the defendant’s guilt? Under this alternative method of Bayesian... continue reading

Bayesian Judges

Building on Eric Posner and Adrian Vermeule’s valuable insights about the Bayesian nature of the judicial process (see their paper "The Votes of Other Judges"), I propose a simple method for improving judicial decision-making, a method I have... continue reading

Betting on Conspiracies?

Was 9/11 an inside job? Did Lee Harvey Oswald act alone? Was the U.S. presidential election of 2020 stolen? I propose a Conspiracy Theory Betting Market to resolve these questions. That is, instead of trying to censor social media platforms or... continue reading


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